4.1 A picture to understand the pros and cons of betting sizing strategies

“There are a thousand Hamlet in the eyes of a thousand readers.” Similarly, a variety of betting strategies are circulating among tens of millions of players. According to casino statistics, there are mainly the following 5 betting methods among baccarat players.

Betting sizing strategy 1: Stud

All funds are invested in each bet. The advantage of this method is that it can quickly get a generous return, but the disadvantage is that as long as you lose once, the player’s account will be declared bankrupt.

Betting sizing strategy 2: All bets for a fixed amount

Regardless of winning or losing, a fixed amount of money is invested every time. This method will greatly reduce the probability that the player loses all the principal, but it also means that the player’s income can only increase in a “slow and stable” trend.

Betting sizing strategy 3: Double bet

After each failure, double the additional bet and strive for a profit to recover the previous loss. The rate of income growth of this method is definitely faster than the fixed equal injection method. However, when the player loses in a row, the player is likely to invest a large amount of money, and the risk of account bankruptcy also increases.

Betting method 4: Fibonacci sequence

After losing the bet, increase the bet amount according to the number on the Fibonacci sequence, and strive for a profit to make up for the previous loss. This method is similar to the double betting method, but it can reduce the rate of increase in the amount of betting during consecutive losses, and of course the rate of winning will be reduced accordingly.

Fibonacci sequence (golden section sequence): 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144….

Betting method 5: proportional betting

Each time, a proportional bet is taken from the current principal. The ratio can be a fixed value, or it can be adjusted accordingly with different odds. Compared with the fixed-amount betting method, the profit of proportional betting increases faster, and the speed of loss during consecutive losses also decreases.

Now let’s experiment with 5 popular betting strategies on the market. In this test system, the player’s initial capital is US$1,000 and the winning rate is 55%. Except for Stud, the initial betting amount for each method is US$100 (proportional betting). The betting ratio of French players is fixed at 10% of the principal). The final result is shown in the figure.

            A: Stud; B: Double betting; C: Fixed betting; D: Proportional betting; E: Fibonacci

When the experiment reached the 500th round, the proportional betting method brought players the most objective return.

Stud’s betting method can certainly be rewarded with one bet, but if the winning rate is not 100%, this betting method will eventually bankrupt the player.

Both double betting and Fibonacci betting have brought considerable benefits to players at the beginning of the experiment. But when the experiment progressed to the 83rd round, the players suffered 11 consecutive losses in a row. In the end, the players who used the double betting method and the Fibonacci betting method lost all the principal in their account.

In addition to proportional betting, fixed-amount betting also brought benefits to players, but the simulation experiment was carried out to the 500th round, and the two players who used fixed-amount betting and proportional betting both gained revenue, of which fixed-amount betting players The gain was $6,400, and proportional betting helped the player earn $18,275.

Under the same variables, the 5 betting methods have brought different results to players. A good betting method will allow the player to do more with less and minimize the player’s losses when losing consecutively.

This experiment shows that there are good and bad betting sizing strategies. If you do not master a reasonable and effective betting sizing strategy, it is undoubtedly to send money to the casino. Besides, in the experiment, the probability of winning is set to 55%. In fact, the player’s winning rate is only 50%.