3.3 Scroll through the history and count your correct rate. Important!!!

After the above study, there may be people who cannot accept the law of large numbers, 50-50, and will not accept the idea that bet placement strategies cannot increase the winning rate. Next, we will do an experiment that will convince you.

Playing baccarat, some people will say that his winning rate is high because he has a winning strategy; some people will say that his winning rate is low because he loses nothing and is heavily in debt. So have you ever counted your own historical data?

This is a very important data that few players will study. Historical data can not only reflect your winning percentage but also reflect why you lose or why you win.

Now, you can open the platform where you often play baccarat and find the page of historical data. Count your winning percentage from now on.

Needless to say, I know that your winning percentage is 50%. You may be surprised “Why do I lose so much money with a 50% winning rate?” “It’s amazing, my winning rate is only 50%!”. Maybe you have changed countless bet placement strategies, maybe you once felt that your bet placement strategy has a high winning rate, maybe you have lost a lot, but your winning rate is the same. Will lose or win only because your bet is working.

In fact, the law of large numbers is indeed everywhere, not only in the cards, but also in your winning percentage. It will not be biased towards the side with the higher winning percentage because of what strategy you use, nor will it be biased towards the side with the lower winning percentage because of your guessing.

People are obsessed with “roads” because of the law of decimals. The law of decimals means that people tend to apply the law of large numbers under the premise of large samples to small samples, but that does not hold true. People mistakenly believe that the empirical mean values of small samples and large samples have the same probability distribution, leading to excessive inferences about independent observations of short sequences. This is a common psychological misunderstanding and a summary of the gambler’s fallacy.

Therefore, if you want to win Baccarat for a long time, it is impossible to win by winning rate, because you cannot break the law of large numbers. In addition to the betting placement strategy, baccarat is a betting sizing strategy. It is conceivable that only a reasonable bet distribution can win Baccarat.

3.2 Statistical baccarat bet placement strategies

Many players will study the load of baccarat, including myself, this is also one of the fun of playing baccarat. But whether the “road” and “point of entry” are really effective, we are here to test and reveal the secrets for everyone.

In China, the Three Roads is a commonly used method of baccarat players, which also includes a variety of evolution methods. People divide the three roads into formal, trans, and pros and cons, and now we will test the three roads trans.

details as follows:

No betting on the first hand of each column of the Three Roads. If the first hand is a banker, then the second hand will buy the player. If it is won, the third hand will not be played. Wait for the next column. If it is wrong, the third hand Continue to buy the player; if the first hand is a player, then the second hand will buy the banker, if it is correct, it will wait for the next row, if it’s wrong, the third hand will continue to buy the banker.

Next, we use a Python program to simulate and test this bet placement strategy to see if the winning rate will be higher than 50% or not much difference.

Obviously, the Three Roads is not as magical as it is said, and it still hasn’t broken the law of large numbers. So, I dare say that all strategies are 50-50, and it does not improve the winning rate. Don’t waste time researching winning bet placement strategies, as long as you are good at a strategy you are used to, the most important thing is to allocate bets.

In addition to the Three Roads, various entry points are also very powerful. For example, “starting six games in a row, and opening a banker will buy a player”. “When you see a shoe card with two rows of players with more than three consecutive games, wait for three players to appear in the third column, and in turn buy the banker three times. Note Yards 1, 2, 4, stop once in a hit, and also stop when you lose three. Change your shoes once in every boot.

In fact, none of these entry points can break the law of large numbers. If you don’t believe it, we test a “6 players and then buy the banker”.

It can be seen that after six consecutive players, the probability of opening a banker and a player is the same. There is no such thing as a high winning rate. The reason for this illusion is that the probability of the entry point is relatively small, and the waiting time is long, and it happens that you have guessed the number of entries correctly.

Don’t think that you can break the law of large numbers by designing complex entry points. In fact, it is not. No matter how rare your bet placement strategy is, no matter how mysterious your bet placement strategy is, it will eventually be 50-50.

So, I dare say that all bet placement strategies are 50-50, and no bet placement strategy can increase the winning rate. Don’t waste your time researching winning bet placement strategies, as long as you are good at a strategy you are accustomed to, defeating Baccarat depends on betting allocation.

3.1 Count 100,000 hands of baccarat

According to the law of large numbers, if the “Tie” situation is not considered, the ratio between the banker and the player should be 1:1 and meet the following conditions:

Theoretical 100,000 hands of banker and player statistics (excluding T)


So, is this the actual situation? Next, we have Python to simulate the Baccarat card road for testing. Only count the bankers and the players, not the Tie. Friends who know Python can download the code to test.

The test results are as follows:

Test two more times:

It can be seen from the simulation data that it is almost consistent with our expected statistical data. This shows that the baccarat game conforms to the law of large numbers.

Does it also show that any bet placement strategies conforms to the law of large numbers, and ultimately conforms to the 50-50 probability? If so, doesn’t it mean that Baccarat does not have a way to increase winning percentage through bet placement strategies? Or, baccarat can’t improve the winning rate at all? This will be verified one by one below.